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Judy's avatar

Chris Van Hollen/ Ro Khanna ticket. I’d like to see AOC run for senate and El-Sayed be in the senate a couple terms. And maybe in 2036 we can have a AOC/ El-Sayed ticket. It is too bad Mandani can’t run. There will be books written on his political genius. I’ve never seen anything like him.

Dave Kamper's avatar

Eric,

I have to say I think you’re way off here. The scenario you’re describing here does not, to me, bear any resemblance to the American political landscape, especially when it comes to presidential politics. Respectfully, it’s very close to a kind of magical thinking, and the democratic socialist Left cannot afford to be doing any more of that.

Your scenario treats as a given that this Hypothetical DSA-Backed Union-Worker Candidate (HDBUWC for short) will be able to get enough political oxygen to influence the Democratic primary contest. But the HDBUWC can’t “pose a sharp question to the American public, the Democratic Party, and other 2028 contenders” unless/until they’ve got enough traction to make it necessary for opponents to respond. They won’t get it.

You seem to take traction/oxygen as automatic, that the mere presence of a person saying they’re running for president is enough to get them press coverage, presence at a debate, and so on. It isn’t, and that’s the fatal flaw with your whole argument and a wild misunderstanding of presidential politics.

There’s no evidence, historically, that outsider candidates with no personal wealth or pre-existing name recognition ever even get out of the gate in presidential races. The closest comparison to what you’re talking about is probably Richard Ojeda, a West Virginia state senator who tried to run as a pure working-class candidate in 2020. He dropped out in January of 2019 (!) and never had any influence on the outcome.

A candidate needs to reach a certain level of support (which is a loose term, the meaning of which is entirely contextual) before they are able to exercise influence over the Democratic primary debate. There’s no plausible path for a HDBUWC to garner that support.

No union of any real size has ever backed such a candidate when an even moderately-acceptable mainstream candidate was available, and DSA trying to get unions to support a HDBUWC over a more mainstream candidate will make us look unserious to potential union partners, who we will at some point need if we're going to build more power. Heck, there’s not even reason to believe the bulk of DSA’s own membership will back an HDBUWC over a Prtizker or a Warnock or whoever. Comparisons to other countries (that have real campaign finance laws and media-balance rules) or to congressional races aren’t relevant. The presidential race is a horse of a different color.

DSA has not proved it has electoral muscle outside of New York City, which is wholly irrelevant to the Democratic primary process as it begins in places other than New York City. The DSA-backed candidates who have won elsewhere have also had broad-based union support and support from other groups like Indivisible, and there’s no reason to believe any of those groups would back a HDBUWC in a presidential race.

I want to be clear. I’m not saying the odds are against us and so on balance it’s not worth the risk. I’m saying our odds are zero that an HDBUWC could become a viable-enough candidate for the Democratic nomination that they would be able to influence the debate (either in the broad sense of the term or in the sense of participating in actual debates).

It won’t happen. It doesn’t matter what message they have. No one will hear it. This isn’t like a Congressional race or a mayor’s race in a dense urban environment, where door knocking and house meetings and public rallies can attract a lot of attention even without a ton of upfront money. It doesn’t scale, especially when (as I’ve noted) the Democratic early primary calendar doesn’t at all look like a map of DSA strength.

A HDBUWC would need, at minimum, enough funding to open campaign offices in the early primary states – South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. That’s office space and minimal staffing. They would need money to travel to these states and spend real time there and would need some kind of staffing to help with this. Yes, some of these costs could be offset by volunteers, but you’re not going to get any substantial number of volunteers for a candidate with no name recognition and no funding. We’re talking a million dollars just to set up a very basic infrastructure, before anything like literature or paid media or dedicated comms staff or anything else. And they’d need to be doing this months before any possible DNC debates.

Again, in a congressional race or something, it’s orders of magnitude easier for a candidate to meet potential volunteers firsthand and win them over as volunteers through their charisma and message. People aren't going to jump into a presidential race for a complete unknown HDBUWC from a single Zoom meeting or cool TikTok videos. A grassroots campaign will need real volunteer work in the field, and we won't be able to win people to such a candidate.

Running an HDBUWC and losing in such spectacular fashion would ruin DSA’s ability to make any demands at all on the eventual Democratic nominee.

DSA barely has the membership to fill a Big 10 football stadium. It’s long past time we accept that reality and scale our ambitions to our actual power, not the power we imagine we’ll have if we come up with some magical working-class-uniting message. A message means nothing if no one hears it and if the messenger is unknown.

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